This working paper gives an overview of the currently existing large scale forestry scenario models. Because these models are closely related to the forest sector models, some of those are also included. An attempt was made to give a complete overview of the large scale scenario models developed at national levels. Although models are mentioned from all over the world, the emphasis lies on Europe. The methodology used was a literature review, mainly on material obtained from the developers of the models. Of the European countries, Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, The Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden each currently have a reasonable to good large scale forestry scenario model. They cover about half of the European forest resources. These national scale dynamic forestry scenario models are clearly inadequate in Southern and Eastern Europe, both regions with considerable forest problems. Furthermore, there are two European scale approaches: the IIASA model developed for the IIASA Forest Study and the European Timber Trend Studies carried out by the UN-ECE/FAO. Outside Europe, very good forestry scenario models have been developed in the United States and New Zealand. Each national forestry scenario model has been designed to deal with specific national circumstances and problems related with national forestry, and they are designed to be able to deal with the type of input data available in that country. Most models have the national forest inventory data as the basis. Together with the forest growth functions and management regimes, the future development of forest resources is simulated. Because of differences in the input variables, the modelling methods and the level of detail, the European level scenarios are difficult to extract. There is clearly a tendency towards higher complexity, higher level of detail, and integration of non-timber values; especially the models which are intensively used tend to move towards optimisation techniques. Only few models have a GIS connection. Developers usually see the potential to nincorporate the effects of environmental changes in these models. Harmonisation at the European level would be very desirable from the viewpoint of output comparison and more consistent simulations. Such harmonised results would make it possible to work towards scenario studies at a European level, based on the available national expertise.
62--015.5 (Forsteinrichtungsmethoden und Aufstellung der Wirtschaftspläne (Kurz- und langfristige). Mathematisch und meßtechnisch. Statistische Methoden)
