In the context of global urbanization and the degradation of ecosystem services, optimizing land use and land cover (LULC) emerges as a pivotal Nature-based Solution for the effective management of human-influenced
landscapes. This methodology is essential for enhancing ecosystem functions and fostering sustainable development. By analyzing LULC data spanning from 2000 to 2020, in conjunction with 20 driving factors within the
Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration, we devised a technical framework consisting of “historical coupling state
identification, multi-scenario simulation, and ecological effect evaluation.” Utilizing this framework, we optimized
LULC projections for the year 2060 across three scenarios: Low-Coupling, Natural-Development, and High-Coupling. Our findings reveal that, subsequent to LULC optimization in the High-Coupling scenario, a significant
increase in ecosystem services is observed. Specifically, the forest area expands by 90,238 ha, and water bodies
increase by 1840 ha, while unused land diminishes by 387,637 ha. This optimization yields a 19.12 % elevation
in water yield, achieving 205.54 cubic meters, a 10.52 % enhancement in soil retention to 297.92 tons per
hectare, and a 7.0 % augmentation in carbon storage to 85.95 kg of carbon per hectare, effectively reversing
ecological degradation. Furthermore, it improves the coupling coordination of the social-ecological system by
0.1649 from 2020 to 2060, demonstrating synergistic effects extending from the core area to adjacent regions.
This research elucidates the mechanism underlying “LULC optimization–ecological function enhancementsystem
coupling synergy” and provides a spatial regulation framework for resource-dependent and ecologically
vulnerable areas. Keywords: Ecosystem restoration, Forest policy, Indicator, Practical knowledge, Restoration expertise, Survey
