How climate changes will influence soc stocks in agricultural soils in poland - current state an projection for 20250 and 2100

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200212178

Agricultural soils are significant reservoirs of organic carbon, playing a crucial role in maintaining soil fertility, water retention, and overall ecosystem health. The impact of climate change on these soils is crucial, and understanding the current state and future projections is key for sustainable land management practices. The aim here is to investigate the potential impacts of climate change on SOC stocks, considering changes in temperature and precipitation in 2050 and 2100 in Polish agricultural soils. This study quantifies present SOC stocks based on over 40,000 soil samples and assesses the impact of the projected climate change on long-term SOC stock changes in Poland, using the digital soil mapping approach. We investigated the projected changes for 2050 and 2100 under two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5: sustainable scenario and RCP 8.5: high-emission scenario with significant climate impacts). Initial analyses suggest complex spatial changes indicating a significant influence of climatic conditions on SOC stock dynamics and SOC stability. Our primary results allow to identify three main regions in Poland where the dynamic of SOC stock can be the highest. The largest losses of SOC may occur in the areas surrounding Wroclaw, and in the Upper Vistula Valley, the southern part of Poland. This may be caused by the increase in temperatures and decrease in precipitation in those areas. On the other hand, we observe also the increase in SOC stock in the northern part of Poland within the areas of relatively dense occurrence of organic soils. This change is linked to the increase in both temperatures and precipitation in this area. In that context, forecasts may significantly contribute to the further strategies of creation of National Soil Monitoring according to the Proposal for a Directive on Soil Monitoring and Resilience by indicating the high-priority areas or the analysis of the possibilities to reach the EU Green Deal targets.
Keywords: Soil organic carbon stocks, Climate change, Scenarios