Predicting the snow avalanche warning level on a 1km grid

431-434

Artikel aus einem Buch

200211899

To support the avalanche warning services of the ÖBB-Infrastruktur AG and other regional avalanche warning services we are developing a statistical avalanche model. Statistical methods are used to determine the avalanche danger in scientific studies over decades. The objectives are either estimating the avalanche danger level or estimating the probabilities of avalanche releases. This study uses the danger levels of the counties Tyrol and Salzburg (Austria), the weather data from a nowcast tool, the snow data from a snow model, and topographic data. A support vector machine is trained with data from 2016-01 to 2022-05. Examples are shown using test data which were not used for the training (from 2022-11 to 2023-05). The model development is ongoing. It is planned to use weather data from numerical weather prediction models to make forecasts for the next days. Additional target variables will be implemented.