Climate change (CC) will considerably alter environmental conditions like temperature and precipitation patterns affecting Central European tree species, especially in alpine regions. To reduce CC-related risks for forests, the planting of different tree species and provenances better adapted to the expected climate has been suggested. However, the amount of seeds produced by temperate tree species varies between years and depends on numerous factors including site and weather conditions during and preceding the year of seed maturation. This study aims to identify the most important climate factors affecting variable seed production in order to estimate the need for forest plantations of key tree species in Austria under different adaptation strategies. Historical data on mast seeding and seed harvest from 1960 to 2016 were collected and analyzed for the currently main tree species. The main climatic conditions and regimes affecting their reproductive features were determined and the occurrence of mast fruiting in each species clustered and mapped at the district level to allow the application of predictive models for all Austrian regions. The results show that the climatic variables affecting masting vary between species and geographical areas and that elevation likewise influences seed production. A heterogeneous distribution of mast fruiting clusters was found for all key tree species. Forest seed producers and forest nurseries are key stakeholders for the implementation of adaptation measures to reliably meet forest seed & seedling demand. Results of this study can support the development of a transnational CC adaptation management strategy in Austria and Central Europe.
