Implications of forest mast seeding for the projected supply of forest seeds and seedlings of the Austrian forest-based sector

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The results show that the climatic variables affecting masting vary between species and geographical areas. A
further factor influencing seed production was elevation. The analysis determined a heterogeneous distribution of mast fruiting clusters for all key tree species. Based on a consistent database incorporating information on seedling production, overproduction and demand, the development of sales quantities was analysed at the tree species level. Sales quantities between 2012/13 and 2016/17 exhibited a clear trend towards non-coniferous species—especially oak species—as well as other deciduous species which are used to establish mixed forests. The relationship between seed harvest and (lagged) seedling production show a higher correlation coefficient for coniferous species than for non-coniferous species across all lags. The vast majority of coniferous seedlings are of Austrian origin (93%). Non-coniferous seedlings, however, are predominantly of foreign origin with a share of 52% (exceptions are black alder and poplar). Further investigation and discussion on this topic will be necessary to determine nexuses between seed harvest and seedling production and their implications. In the next step, scenarios of future forest seedling production based on potential seed supply and predicted seed demand along with species distribution models incorporating the effects of climate change will be developed to estimate forest seedling demand for the most important tree species in Austria and Central Europe under different adaptation management strategies.