Ein virtueller Förster lernt durchforsten: Sukzessionsmodelle in der Ertragsforschung?

Göttingen

2011

S. 207-212

Artikel aus einer Zeitschrift

200173616

Forest gap models are flexible tools for the simulation of long-term forest dynamics under different climatic conditions and are thus, at least theoretically, well-suited as decision support tools in forestry when dealing with the challenges of climatic change. There are several aspects of gap models, however, that still need to be improved, such as the simulation of forest management and the accuracy of stand structural features. Specifically, in most gap models actual tree height is approximated using a fixed relationship with stem diameter, and every tree approaches a fixed maximum height regardless of site conditions, two unrealistic assumptions in a forestry context. We improved these features in the gap model FORCLIM and also implemented a management submodel that is able to simulate a wide range of cutting and thinning techniques. The new model version, FORCLIM v3.0, was tested against long-term data from eight growth-and-yield research plots across climatic conditions ranging from the cold to the dry timberline. The simulation of stand structural features was considerably better, and stem numbers, basal area and diameter distributions of the stands were be depicted accurately in more than half of the cases, and still to a satisfying extent in the other cases. We thus propose that the new version of FORCLIM may serve as a strategic decision support tool in forestry regarding sustainable management under conditions of a rapidly changing climate.