Consequences of Accelerated Growth for the Forests and Forest Sector in Germany : Causes and Consequences of Accelerating Tree Growth in Europe. Proceedings of the International Seminar

1999

S. 197-206

8 Abb., 14 Lit.

Unselbständiges Werk

200059081

The forest scenario studies at the European Forest Institute aim at long-term projections of the development of European forests. The current baseline study analyses the forest resources until 2050 under different management regimes and forest policies. In this paper, we have applied the scenario study methodology to the specific case of an increased growth for all species in Germany. We assumed a sudden growth increase of 30%. The impact which this has on the forest development was used as input to a forest sector analysis under this growth increase. We determined the impacts on prices and demand for wood products. It was shown that the assumed growth would have a large impact on the forest resource development. The prices of sawnwood increase by 16% compared to 1994 in the accelerated growth scenario, against 25% in the baseline projection with capacity expansion. Therefore, under the accelerated growth, the expected price increase in the future is dampened with 36%. For the present paper we have only build in a sudden growth change and did not take into account any changes in mortality because of high growing stocks, nor did we take into account impacts on trade flows between countries. In the future, the forest scenario model will be improved in such a way that growth changes due to climate change can be taken into account in a transient way.