Determinanten des Holzverbrauchs : Internationale Querschnittanalyse zur Abschätzung der Entwicklung der Nachfrage nach Produkten aus Basis Holz in Transformationsländern : Dissertation, Universität Hamburg, Fachbereich Biologie

2002

156 S.

51 Lit. Ang.

Bandaufführung

106244

To analyse the enlargement effects in the Central and Eastern European Countries there is need to estimate wood demand in these countries in combination with different scenarios for economic development. To do so it has to be focused on basic relationships between wood demand and economic development in these countries. Because no sufficient investigations on these basic relationships could be found, it was decided to make these investigations. Due to the transformation process in the Central and Eastern European Countries time series of economic data are not suitable for estimating development trends which can be extrapolated for the future. Therefore the investigations of the present study are founded on cross sectional data. The international cross-section analysis is based on data of the year 1994 for 67 countries, altogether. Data was collected for 23 variables, referring to different subjects forestry and forest products as well as general economy, demography and climate. By the application of cluster-analysis the countries were grouped according to similarities in consumption patterns. The principle of cluster-analysis is to reach a high degree of similarity within the groups while maximizing the variability between the groups. In this study it is of main interest to which group of countries the individual Central and Eastern European Countries are assigned. There was the idea, to use available knowledge of consumption patterns in countries which are identified a similar to specific Central and Eastern European Countries. To identify those variables which are most important for separating the countries into groups, the cluster-analysis was complemented by a discriminant-analysis. A first result - gained from cluster-analysis - is that the Central and Eastern European Countries are of higher resemblance to the Industrial Countries than to the Developing Countries. The differences between the Central and Eastern European Countries and the Industrial Countries on the one hand and the Developing Countries on the other, can not be attributed to differences in the comsumption of forest products.