Modeling protective forests for gravitational natural hazards and how it relates to 565 risk-based decision support tools

2021

Online first

Sonderdruck

12862S

40002574

Simulation tools and their integrated models are widely used to estimate potential starting, transit and runout zones of gravitational natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and landslides (i.e., gravitational mass flows [GMFs]). Forests growing in areas susceptible to GMFs can influence their release and propagation probabilities (i.e., frequency and magnitude of an event) as well as their intensity. If and how well depends on the GMF type, the topography of the terrain and the forests’ structure. In this chapter, we introduce basic concepts of computer models and state-of-the-art methods for modeling forest interactions with rockfall, snow avalanches and landslides. Furthermore, an example of a protective forest routine embedded in the runout angle-based GMF simulation tool Flow-Py will be presented together with its parameterization for forest-GMF interactions. We applied Flow-Py and two custom extensions to model where forests protect people and assets against GMFs (the protective function) and how forests reduce their frequency, magnitude and/or intensity (the protective effect). The goal of this chapter is to describe protective forest models, so that practitioners and decision makers can better utilize them and their results as decision support tools for risk-based protective forest and ecosystem-based integrated risk management of natural hazards.Keywords: simulation tools, statistical and physical models, protective forest, rockfall, snow avalanches, landslides