Towards a Probabilistic Avalanche Simulation Strategy for Hazard Mapping

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17574BU

200204767

Computer simulations are a common tool for assessing the potential hazard associated with the rapid movement of snow avalanches. Their application is straightforward and setups for valuable simulation results are quite easy to determine. Setup guidelines exist for hazard mapping and engineering issues, making them transparent and easy to replicate. But often these are estimates, and due to model assumptions and further simplifications in the mathematical description of physical process (i.e. moving snow), uncertainties in the simulations arise. Being aware of these uncertainties, as well as those for input data, we investigated the main sources for the simulation tool SamosAT. Prioritizing in regard to practical application leads to a base set of parameter variations to include in a first prototype for probabilistic avalanche simulations. The assessment builds on the requirement of practical applicability for operational use at the Austrian Service for Torrent and Avalanche Control. These include constraints on computational time and power, as well as prior knowledge of parameter ranges. Presenting benefits and issues that arose during our testing period, we highlight the necessity to accept inherent uncertainties of input data and simulation tools. Handling these is necessary for future advancement of avalanche simulations in engineering applications and our presented strategy is a first step towards this goal.Keywords: avalanche dynamics, hazard mapping, uncertainties