Prediction Method of Debris Flow : Veränderungen im Natur- und Kulturhaushalt und ihre Auswirkungen : INTERPRAEVENT

2000

11 Lit. Ang.

Unselbständiges Werk

13124

200084997

Debris flows often cause extensive destruction of property and loss of life in mountainous regions of Beijing. Prediction of debris flows in these areas is of great importance. The paper presents a combination of methods to predict debris flow, including short-term prediction and long-term prediction. The short-term prediction method of debris flows is established by means of statistical analysis and calculation of recorded precipitation data from mountainous regions of Beijing. The prediction equations deal with one key issue-the critical rainfall for simplicity and provide the warning, disastrous and critical rainfall lines, which indicate the possibility and danger levels of debris flows. The long-term prediction method of debris flows is established by simplifying and numerically solving the mass and momentum equations of unsteady flow in two horizontal dimensions, as well as by mapping hazard areas. The reliability and accuracy of both methods have been validated against field data from Beijing mountainous regions and it is shown that they provide a useful tool for predicting debris flows in most mountainous areas in Beijing.