A Methodology for determining the Impacts of a Changing Climate on Natural Hazards

Strasbourg

2010

S. 459-465

Monographie

10801S

170659

In this paper an overview of the past and future changes in the global, European and Austrian climate is given. Using climate series from the past and two common regional climate change scenarios for Europe and Austria, potential developments of the climate and these uncertainties in the predicted values are shown. Furthermore, a concept is presented on how to identify possible local impacts of a changing climate on soil, vegetation, snowpack and permafrost. Hence a method for determining the effects of these changes and the direct impacts of a changing climate on natural hazard processes such as avalanches and debris flow in an Alpine environment are shown.